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FEBRUARY 29,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

HIGH TECH NEWS – From AP:   LOS ANGELES (AP) -- A self-driving car being tested by Google struck a public bus on a Silicon Valley street, a fender-bender that appears to be the first time one of the tech company's vehicles caused a crash during testing.  Google accepted at least some responsibility for the collision, which occurred on Valentine's Day when one of the Lexus SUVs it has outfitted with sensors and cameras hit the side of the bus near the company's headquarters in Mountain View, California.  No one was injured, according to an accident report Google wrote and submitted to the California Department of Motor Vehicles. It was posted online Monday.  I'll bet the bus driver got into an argument with the car's steering wheel.

DEMS SLIP IN DEM MECCA – From the Boston Herald:   Nearly 20,000 Bay State Democrats have fled the party this winter, with thousands doing so to join the Republican ranks, according to the state’s top elections official.  Secretary of State William Galvin said more than 16,300 Democrats have shed their party affiliation and become independent voters since Jan. 1, while nearly 3,500 more shifted to the MassGOP ahead of tomorrow’s “Super Tuesday” presidential primary.  Galvin called both “significant” changes that dwarf similar shifts ahead of other primary votes, including in 2000, when some Democrats flocked from the party in order to cast a vote for Sen. John McCain in the GOP primary.  The primary reason? Galvin said his “guess” is simple: “The Trump phenomenon,” a reference to GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, who polls show enjoying a massive lead over rivals Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and others among Massachusetts Republican voters.  Trump has tapped into anger and frustration, and that crosses party lines.  We reported this morning that some professional pols think he can take New York State in November.

MORE BRILLIANCE – From the Washington Examiner:   The White House is quietly pushing for an increase in refugees from Syria, despite new concerns raised by state and county officials that federal help is often missing when they arrive.  President Obama's assistant for immigration policy told a task force set up by the National Association of Counties that the U.S. is eyeing a bigger role to help alleviate the growing crisis.  "We want to make sure that we can increase our numbers of refugees that are able to settle here," Felicia Escobar said.  This will be immensely unpopular with the American people, but I do love Democrats who hand our side election issues.

February 29, 2016      Permalink

THE BEST ON CLINTON – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  This is the very best piece on Hillary Clinton's legal problems that I've read.  I urge you to read it all.  From University of Chicago Professor Charles Lipson at RealClearPolitics: 

If FBI Director Comey does recommend criminal charges, he will put DOJ and the White House in a very tight box. First, as a seasoned prosecutor, he will present only strong, winnable cases. Second, he won’t present one or two charges. He will present evidence of dozens and dozens of felonies. AG Lynch and her career attorneys won’t be able to say, “On the whole, there’s just not enough here to convict.” They will have to say that over and over, on each charge. Indictment on even a few felonies is a torpedo beneath the waterline for Clinton. Third, it is clear that CIA and FBI investigators already fear an administration whitewash and have leaked damaging information to the press.

If insiders think the administration is engaged in a full-fledged cover-up, they will resign, led by Comey. They won’t go quietly. They will spill the beans. And two hours later, it won’t smell good.

Knowing that, Lynch and her political bosses, Barack Obama and his closest adviser, Valerie Jarrett, will have to decide which is worse, indicting their party’s presumptive nominee or risking their own Watergate?

Whichever they choose, the White House will not want its fingerprints on the decision. They will want White House spokesman Josh Ernest to say, with a straight face, “This decision was made entirely by respected, career professionals at the Department of Justice.”

If the FBI recommends felony charges, as is likely, the DOJ’s choices are damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t. For Loretta Lynch, it will make for a painful final year. For her party, the stakes are the presidency. For her country, they are the impartial rule of law.

COMMENT:  Comey has a superb reputation for competence and integrity.  He will not trash it.  And I doubt that Loretta Lynch wants to sacrifice herself for the good of the Clintons.  And Obama would probably be happier with Joe Biden as the candidate to succeed him. 

The FBI probe is expected to come to an end soon.  The results cannot be covered up in a town that leaks like a sponge. 

Of course, it's possible that the FBI will find no serious criminal activity, but I don't think they've assigned 150 agents to look into a technical violation.   This is not about parking tickets.

The best of this campaign is yet to come.  Read that whole piece.

February 29, 2016       Permalink

TITANIC! – THE SINKING OF – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:  The Oscars were on last night, someone told me.  There was a lot of wonder about where the ratings would go in light of the controversy over "diversity."  After all, most people used to watch the Oscars for entertainment, not a political lecture.  Turns out most people today are still most people.  The ratings last night were in the tank.  From Deadline Hollywood:

Chris Rock came out swinging in one of the most anticipated opening monologues in years and took on the diversity controversy from the get-go at the 88th Academy Awards. Last night also saw Brie Larson win Best Actress, Leonardo DiCaprio snag Best Actor in his fifth nomination, Alejandro G. Iñárritu was named Best Director and Spotlight won Best Picture. With all that, the Oscars themselves did not have a great night ratingswise with a 23.1/37 in metered market results.

Declining to an 8-year low, that’s down 6% from the 24.6/39 that the ceremony got last year in early results from the 56 markets across the country. That 2015 Neil Patrick Harris hosted Oscars were matched with the 2011 Oscars for the third worst the Academy Awards has done in MM ratings since the last time Rock fronted the gig in 2005 – only 2009’s Hugh Jackman-hosted 23.3 and 2008’s Jon Stewart-hosted 21.9 were lower. Obviously, in the early results, last night’s show dipped below 2009 and close to 2008 numbers.

The 2005 Oscars were the best the show has done in the past decade with a 30.1/43 MM rating. That high has also remained true in later numbers for the show. With Million Dollar Baby winning Best Picture, the 2005 Oscars ended up with a massive 42.14 million viewers and 19.6 million among adults 18-49. In both categories, that was a dip from 2004’s results. Compared to the last time Rock hosted 11-years ago, last night’s 8:30 – midnight show was down 23% in metered market results – much more than a dip.

COMMENT:  I know there's a lot of show-biz lingo in that piece, but, bottom line, the bottom line was embarrassing.  Chris Rock is very popular, but even he couldn't save the show from the big turnoff. 

The political atmosphere didn't help.  Neither did the fact that millions of Americans don't know those movies or those so-called stars.  The golden age this ain't.  The great industry anthem is "There's No Business Like Show Business," but, unless Hollywood comes alive, increases its contact with its own audience, and stops politicizing every written line, show business may be no business.

February 29, 2016       Permalink

OH HAPPY DAY – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  I love this, especially on a Monday morning.  Fred Dicker, one of the best reporters on New York State politics that we have, tells us that the real pros think Hillary Clinton might lose New York in a race against Donald Trump.  From the New York Post: 

Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner’s support grows to the point of being “surprisingly strong,” The Post has learned.

The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.

“There are some Democrats who think that Hillary can be taken if Trump mounts a strong campaign,’’ one of the state’s most prominent Democrats said.

Most of the polling didn’t address the possibility that former Mayor Michael Bloomberg would run as an independent, but some of it did — and found the former mayor took “significant’’ votes away from Clinton in heavily Democratic New York City and the surrounding suburbs, a source familiar with the data said.

The new polls, a second source said, showed Trump’s support, even without Bloomberg in the race, was “surprisingly strong’’ in Westchester and on Long Island, the key suburbs often viewed as crucial swing bellwethers on how statewide elections will turn out.

COMMENT:  Urgent Agenda is done in Westchester, and I grew up on Long Island.  The Clintons live in Westchester.  The local congresswoman, Nita Lowey, is a close Clinton friend.  If Clinton is wobbly in Westchester, she's in trouble. 

We note that polls are snapshots in time.  The election will be held in November, not now.  The Dems will be training their heavy guns – oh, I mean non-firearm devices – at Trump, and he provides fertile ground.  But Hillary still has the FBI probe hanging over her.

I do wish our side had a better frontrunner, with low negatives.  Republicans have the potential this year to run the table...with the right ticket.

February 29,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 28,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

SESSIONS – Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, a conservative mainstay in the Senate, has endorsed Donald Trump for president.  This is two days before the heavily southern Super Tuesday primaries.  Trump is neither a conservative nor a Republican, but the endorsement came nonetheless.  If you were to ask me what the Republican Party stands for these days, I'd be hard pressed to answer.  If Trump gets the nomination, we'd have to wait for the party platform at the convention to find out what his views are.  I think parties have to be reasonably flexible, and open to being the "big tent" necessary to win elections.  But they can't be all things to all people.  I fear that's what happening in both parties today.

MAJOR POLITICAL NEWS – John Kasich makes a decision.  From The Hill:   Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich said on Saturday that he will drop out of the race if he doesn't win his home state of Ohio.  "I will beat Donald Trump in Ohio, and that will be the beginning of a new day," Kasich told a crowd in Nashville, according to the New York Times.  "Some of the other candidates, if they can't win their home state, they got to get out, OK?" he added. "If I don't win my home state, I'll get out. But you know what? I'm going to win Ohio."  John Kasich is a good guy, and has been a fine governor.  But you know, Johnny, isn't it a little late in the game to be depending on your home state to give you a boost?  I mean, what about all those other states?  What are they, chopped liver? 

DEM ENTHUSIASM DOWN – From Daily Caller:   Democrats have seen a 26 percent decrease in the number of voters and caucusgoers who have showed up to the polls this year compared to 2008, when the party last had a competitive primary race.  Interestingly enough, that steep decline is the inverse of the spike in Republican turnout this cycle compared to 2012, when Mitt Romney earned the party’s nomination.  Clinton routed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in South Carolina on Saturday, winning 74 percent of the vote to Sanders’ 26 percent. While the huge margin of victory is good news for Clinton — polls had her winning, but more narrowly — the overall voter turnout must set off alarms for her campaign, as well as for the Democratic party. Whereas 532,000 South Carolina Democrats voted in 2008, only 367,000 showed up Saturday.  There is nothing about the Democratic Party to arouse enthusiasm.  At least our side can promise an exciting circus.

February 28, 2016       Permalink

ENDLESS PANDERING – AT 1:24 P.M. ET:   Hillary Clinton doesn't know when to stop.  She panders, and panders, and panders, but forgets those who are owed respect.  From Fox: 

Hillary Clinton paid tribute Saturday during her primary victory rally to the mothers of black victims killed by police and civilians – while ignoring the rising number of police killed by gunfire in the line of duty this year.

The Democratic presidential candidate paused during her speech in Columbia, S.C., to honor the five women, who also campaigned with her across South Carolina before Saturday’s primary.

“They all lost children, which is almost unimaginable, yet they have not been broken or embittered,” Clinton said, adding that they have turned their “mourning into a movement.”

She recited the names of Sybrina Fulton, mother of Trayvon Martin; Gwen Carr, mother of Eric Garner; and the three others.

But she did not mention the rash of police fatalities. So far this year, according to the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund, 10 officers have been shot and killed, representing a 900 percent increase in firearms-related officer deaths compared with this time last year.

Most recently, Cpl. Nate Carrigan was fatally shot while serving an eviction notice in Colorado. And on Saturday, three officers reportedly were shot and wounded in Prince William County, Va., outside the nation’s capital.

COMMENT:  Update:  One of the officers shot in Virginia was a policewoman, and she was killed.  It was her first day on the job.  Apparently, she was not worthy of mention by a woman trying to become president.  Pretty disgraceful.

February 28, 2016       Permalink

OSCAR NIGHT – AT 12:55 P.M. ET:  This is Oscar night.  Used to be a big deal.  The film industry was at its best, dressed up in elegant clothes that you could show on family television.  Movie stars knew how to behave and how to be interviewed.  There was a certain style and class.  There was real glamour.

It's been a long way down.  I will spent part of today planning on how to avoid the Oscars.  I will not watch.  I've never heard of most of the movies or a good number of the "stars."  I am not interested in the anticipated speeches on the lack of diversity in Hollywood.  They will be pompous and earnest, and nothing will be done because it's almost impossible to manufacture diversity in an artistic medium.

(Oh, by the way, with all the yapping about the lack of diversity in Hollywood, have you ever wondered why African Americans do so well in the music industry?  That would be a great story, if someone were willing to tell it.) 

We don't have a real American movie industry today.  The business is international.  Even American filmmakers know they are playing to a partly or even mostly foreign audience.  And our "stars" are kind of semi-stars, made into stars by their success in one or two films.  In the golden age, actual film studios, like MGM, made movies and movie stars.  MGM had schools to train actors and actresses in their craft, and in doing the work of a movie star – appearing in public, being interviewed, even walking down a street.  And the style showed.   

The excitement has gone out.  So has the stature.  Who is today's Gary Cooper?  or Audrey Hepburn?  Or Humphrey Bogart?  Or Grace Kelly?  Or Judy Garland?

The excitement today in Hollywood is in television.  We are in television's second golden age.  There are fine things to see, both in series television and in documentaries.  Television has become vital again.  If I were starting out in the business, that's where I'd be.

February 28, 2016       Permalink 

NEW SUPER TUESDAY POLL – AT 11:31 A.M.  ET:  Looks like Trump and Clinton on Tuesday, but Trump's numbers don't look especially great in the states polled, whereas Clinton's do.  From NBC News: 

Donald Trump is leading in the Super Tuesday states of Georgia and Tennessee, while Ted Cruz is ahead in his home state of Texas, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

And Hillary Clinton is topping Bernie Sanders in all three of those southern states by about a 2-to-1 margin.

In Georgia, Trump gets support from 30 percent of likely Republican voters — followed by Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tied at 23 percent each, and Ben Carson and John Kasich tied at 9 percent each.

In Tennessee, Trump leads Cruz by 18 points, 40 percent to 22 percent, while Rubio gets 19 percent, Carson 9 percent and Kasich at 6 percent.

But in Texas, Cruz is ahead at 39 percent - followed by Trump at 26 percent, Rubio at 16 percent, Carson at 8 percent and Kasich at 6 percent.

In the Democratic race, meanwhile, Clinton leads Sanders in Georgia by 34 points among likely Democratic primary voters, 64 percent to 30 percent.  In Tennessee, Clinton is ahead by 26 points, 60 percent to 34 percent.  And in Texas, she's up by 21 points, 59 percent to 38 percent.

COMMENT:  Trump can only be happy about Tennessee, where he barely hits 40%.  Remember, he's the "frontrunner."  In Georgia the "frontrunner" is at 30%.  In Texas he's at 26%.  In other words, the argument that a solid majority of Republicans aren't for Trump holds up, at least in these states.  We'll see about the others.  I'm particularly interested in Virginia, which is becoming a national indicator.

On the Dem side, Hillary is cruising.  However, I wouldn't count Sanders out entirely.  Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have large minority populations.  Not all states do.  What is ironic is that Sanders has a long history of support for minority aspirations, whereas Clinton's record is less distinguished.  But in the fever swamps of Democratic politics, minorities, especially blacks, tend to vote the way their leaders say to vote, and Hillary is close to the leaders.

February 28,  2016     Permalink